Study suggests preseason shoulder strength may determine injury severity for baseball pitchers
KEYSTONE, CO (July 10, 2009) – Athletic injuries can derail any player's ability to compete, but for a baseball pitcher his shoulder strength and control is critical. A new study to be presented at the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine's (AOSSM) Annual Meeting in Keystone, Colorado, suggests that testing a pitcher's shoulder strength through a series of exercises during the preseason may help create a focused strength training program to prevent serious injury during the season.
"The ability to identify pitchers at risk for injury could be extremely valuable to a professional baseball organization. Our study examined the predictive value of preseason strength measurements as they relate to in-season throwing injuries," said Ian Byram MD, lead author and fourth year orthopaedic surgery resident at Vanderbilt Medical Center, Nashville, TN
The study measured the preseason shoulder strength for all pitchers in a professional baseball organization over a five-year period (2001-2005). Over the course of the five-year period, 144 major and minor league baseball pitchers were analyzed using a specific protocol by a single athletic trainer. Prone internal rotation (IR), prone external rotation (PER), seated external rotation (SER) and supraspinatus (SS) strength were tested during spring training prior to each season. The players were then followed throughout the season for incidence of throwing related injury.
The study illustrated a significant association between PER, SER and SS strength with throwing related injuries requiring surgery. There was also some evidence for an association between the ratio of PER/IR strength and the incidence of injury.
"The shoulder and elbow are subjected to significant stresses during the pitching motion, placing them at risk for injury. By demonstrating an association between shoulder weakness and throwing related injuries, we hope that future injuries might be prevented by focusing strength training programs on those areas that are weakest," said Byram.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
What makes a great footballer?
While most fans are in awe of what their football heroes can do with a football, the source of their remarkable skill remains strangely mysterious. Although being in excellent physical condition undoubtedly helps, few people actually believe that intense physical training alone can turn an average bloke into a Ronaldo. Now, scientists from the University of Queensland have decided to study what this "something else" might be. Dr. Robbie Wilson will talk about the details of this study and the results that have been obtained so far in his talk at the Society of Experimental Biology Annual Meeting in Glasgow on Sunday 28th June 2009.
Dr. Wilson believes that this type of research may have applied outcomes for football clubs: "Our analyses suggest that unambiguous metrics of a player's skill components should be used to help in the selection and identification of new talent. Our studies could help to streamline selection criteria and efficiency by providing a rank ordering of individuals based upon competitive one-on-one tasks. In addition, the relative importance of each type of skill component could be tailored to each player's position and the club's immediate and future requirements."
Members of the semi-professional University of Queensland Football Club (UQFC) were recruited as experimental subjects, and they were made to compete against each other in one-on-one "football tennis" games, which require very similar athletic and skill sets to that required for regular football games. In parallel, the same players were evaluated for overall athleticism and skill in sixteen different tasks. "There was no evidence of any correlations between maximal athletic performance and skill", explains Dr. Wilson. "Our studies suggest that skill is just as important, if not more important, than athletic ability in determining performance of complex traits, such as performance on the football field".
Interestingly, the researchers are hoping that focusing on footballing ability in humans will also provide them with insight into the role that individual skills play in other species, for example during aggression, prey capture or escape from a predator. Dr. Wilson argues that the importance of skill for the evolution of vertebrate physical performance is currently unknown and largely treated by researchers as a difficult 'black box' to understand. "To develop an understanding of the evolution and function of complex performance traits, we need to investigate the role of individual skill".
Dr. Wilson believes that this type of research may have applied outcomes for football clubs: "Our analyses suggest that unambiguous metrics of a player's skill components should be used to help in the selection and identification of new talent. Our studies could help to streamline selection criteria and efficiency by providing a rank ordering of individuals based upon competitive one-on-one tasks. In addition, the relative importance of each type of skill component could be tailored to each player's position and the club's immediate and future requirements."
Members of the semi-professional University of Queensland Football Club (UQFC) were recruited as experimental subjects, and they were made to compete against each other in one-on-one "football tennis" games, which require very similar athletic and skill sets to that required for regular football games. In parallel, the same players were evaluated for overall athleticism and skill in sixteen different tasks. "There was no evidence of any correlations between maximal athletic performance and skill", explains Dr. Wilson. "Our studies suggest that skill is just as important, if not more important, than athletic ability in determining performance of complex traits, such as performance on the football field".
Interestingly, the researchers are hoping that focusing on footballing ability in humans will also provide them with insight into the role that individual skills play in other species, for example during aggression, prey capture or escape from a predator. Dr. Wilson argues that the importance of skill for the evolution of vertebrate physical performance is currently unknown and largely treated by researchers as a difficult 'black box' to understand. "To develop an understanding of the evolution and function of complex performance traits, we need to investigate the role of individual skill".
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
The first goal is the deepest
Can mathematics predict the match outcome?
Jack Brimberg and Bill Hurley of The Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, point out that sports commentators will often argue the importance of scoring the first goal and often suggest that a team improves its chances of winning considerably by scoring it. This kind of punditry more commonly arises during playoff games which tend to be played more defensively.
However, although the total number of goals scored in a soccer or hockey match is usually small, Brimberg and Hurley wanted to find out whether that first goal is all important or not. They have done this by calculating the probability of the first-goal team winning at discrete points in the match after the first goal is scored based on the number of minutes remaining in the game. They also take overtime into account to adjust the weighting on their formula appropriately.
Team X is playing team Y. Team X scores first and there are T minutes left in regulation time. They then assume that goal scoring follows the law of statistics known as a Poisson distribution, which for hockey and soccer it does. Scoring in other sports, such as tennis and baseball follow a different set of statistical rules as there are different scoring factors and more "goals" scored in a match.
Therefore, the number of goals scored, N, follows the Poisson pattern and has a probability of a certain number being scored in total by both sides of "lambda". If both teams are playing hard, to win, then there is an equal chance of them scoring after that first goal. However, there are factors such as league position and seasonal performance to take into account, so each of those has a parameter in the final formula.
The formula breaks down as follows: From the first whistle, team X has a 50:50 chance of winning. However, if the team scores at just 5 minutes of play, with 55 minutes left to play in the first period of a hockey match, then the team's chances rise to 7 to 3 (70%). However, if they score the first goal much later in the game, with say, 25 minutes remaining in the second period, then their chances of winning the match rises to 4 to 1 (80%).
Of course, probability and statistics are notoriously difficult to pin down in real life, so it is best to take any such mathematical punditry with a pinch of salt when watching the fortunes or misfortunes of your team. That applies whether you're catching the Toronto Maple Leafs in hockey or your flight of fancy is The Newcastle Magpies in soccer.
The researchers' ultimate aim is not to see sports pundits out of a job, but to provide an interesting example of how statistics problems might be taught in the classroom. The current example requires explanation and understanding of several important topics in statistics, they explain, including the exponential, Poisson, and binomial distributions, probability trees, and the use of conditioning to calculate complex probabilities.
Jack Brimberg and Bill Hurley of The Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, point out that sports commentators will often argue the importance of scoring the first goal and often suggest that a team improves its chances of winning considerably by scoring it. This kind of punditry more commonly arises during playoff games which tend to be played more defensively.
However, although the total number of goals scored in a soccer or hockey match is usually small, Brimberg and Hurley wanted to find out whether that first goal is all important or not. They have done this by calculating the probability of the first-goal team winning at discrete points in the match after the first goal is scored based on the number of minutes remaining in the game. They also take overtime into account to adjust the weighting on their formula appropriately.
Team X is playing team Y. Team X scores first and there are T minutes left in regulation time. They then assume that goal scoring follows the law of statistics known as a Poisson distribution, which for hockey and soccer it does. Scoring in other sports, such as tennis and baseball follow a different set of statistical rules as there are different scoring factors and more "goals" scored in a match.
Therefore, the number of goals scored, N, follows the Poisson pattern and has a probability of a certain number being scored in total by both sides of "lambda". If both teams are playing hard, to win, then there is an equal chance of them scoring after that first goal. However, there are factors such as league position and seasonal performance to take into account, so each of those has a parameter in the final formula.
The formula breaks down as follows: From the first whistle, team X has a 50:50 chance of winning. However, if the team scores at just 5 minutes of play, with 55 minutes left to play in the first period of a hockey match, then the team's chances rise to 7 to 3 (70%). However, if they score the first goal much later in the game, with say, 25 minutes remaining in the second period, then their chances of winning the match rises to 4 to 1 (80%).
Of course, probability and statistics are notoriously difficult to pin down in real life, so it is best to take any such mathematical punditry with a pinch of salt when watching the fortunes or misfortunes of your team. That applies whether you're catching the Toronto Maple Leafs in hockey or your flight of fancy is The Newcastle Magpies in soccer.
The researchers' ultimate aim is not to see sports pundits out of a job, but to provide an interesting example of how statistics problems might be taught in the classroom. The current example requires explanation and understanding of several important topics in statistics, they explain, including the exponential, Poisson, and binomial distributions, probability trees, and the use of conditioning to calculate complex probabilities.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Recovery aid for soccer players
New study finds lowfat chocolate milk is effective post-exercise recovery aid for soccer players
Chocolate milk's 'natural' muscle recovery benefits match or may even surpass a specially designed carbohydrate sports drink
JUNE 1, 2009, SEATTLE – Soccer players and exercise enthusiasts now have another reason to reach for lowfat chocolate milk after a hard workout, suggests a new study from James Madison University presented at the American College of Sports Medicine annual meeting. Post-exercise consumption of lowfat chocolate milk was found to provide equal or possibly superior muscle recovery compared to a high-carbohydrate recovery beverage with the same amount of calories.
In this study, 13 male college soccer players participated in "normal" training for one week, then were given lowfat chocolate milk or a high-carbohydrate recovery beverage daily after intense training for four days. After a two week break, the athletes went through a second round of "normal" training, followed by four-day intensified training to compare their recovery experiences following each beverage (with the same amount of calories). Prior to the intense training, at day two and at the completion of this double-blind study, the researchers conducted specific tests to evaluate "markers" of muscle recovery.
All of the athletes increased their daily training times during the intensified training, regardless of post-exercise beverage yet after two and four days of intensified training, chocolate milk drinkers had significantly lower levels of creatine kinase – an indicator of muscle damage – compared to when they drank the carbohydrate beverage. There were no differences between the two beverages in effects on, soccer-specific performance tests, subjective ratings of muscle soreness, mental and physical fatigue and other measures of muscle strength. The results indicate that lowfat chocolate milk is effective in the recovery and repair of muscles after intense training for these competitive soccer players.
This new study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting milk may be just as effective as some commercial sports drinks in helping athletes recover and rehydrate. Chocolate milk has the advantage of additional nutrients not found in most traditional sports drinks. Studies suggest that when consumed after exercise, milk's mix of high-quality protein and carbohydrates can help refuel exhausted muscles. The protein in milk helps build lean muscle and recent research suggests it may reduce exercise-induced muscle damage. Milk also provides fluids for rehydration and minerals like calcium, potassium and magnesium that recreational exercisers and elite athletes alike need to replace after strenuous activity.
Nearly 18 million Americans play soccer, according to American Sports Data, and millions more engage in recreational sports. Many experts agree that the two-hour window after exercise is an important, yet often neglected, part of a fitness routine. After strenuous exercise, this post-workout recovery period is critical for active people at all fitness levels – to help make the most of a workout and stay in top shape for the next exercise bout. Sweating not only results in fluid losses, but also important minerals including calcium, potassium and magnesium. The best recovery routine should replace fluids and nutrients lost in sweat, and help muscles recover.
Increasingly, fitness experts consider chocolate milk an effective (and affordable and enjoyable) option as a post-exercise recovery drink. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommend that Americans drink three glasses of lowfat or fat free milk every day. Drinking lowfat chocolate milk after a workout is a good place to start.
Chocolate milk's 'natural' muscle recovery benefits match or may even surpass a specially designed carbohydrate sports drink
JUNE 1, 2009, SEATTLE – Soccer players and exercise enthusiasts now have another reason to reach for lowfat chocolate milk after a hard workout, suggests a new study from James Madison University presented at the American College of Sports Medicine annual meeting. Post-exercise consumption of lowfat chocolate milk was found to provide equal or possibly superior muscle recovery compared to a high-carbohydrate recovery beverage with the same amount of calories.
In this study, 13 male college soccer players participated in "normal" training for one week, then were given lowfat chocolate milk or a high-carbohydrate recovery beverage daily after intense training for four days. After a two week break, the athletes went through a second round of "normal" training, followed by four-day intensified training to compare their recovery experiences following each beverage (with the same amount of calories). Prior to the intense training, at day two and at the completion of this double-blind study, the researchers conducted specific tests to evaluate "markers" of muscle recovery.
All of the athletes increased their daily training times during the intensified training, regardless of post-exercise beverage yet after two and four days of intensified training, chocolate milk drinkers had significantly lower levels of creatine kinase – an indicator of muscle damage – compared to when they drank the carbohydrate beverage. There were no differences between the two beverages in effects on, soccer-specific performance tests, subjective ratings of muscle soreness, mental and physical fatigue and other measures of muscle strength. The results indicate that lowfat chocolate milk is effective in the recovery and repair of muscles after intense training for these competitive soccer players.
This new study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting milk may be just as effective as some commercial sports drinks in helping athletes recover and rehydrate. Chocolate milk has the advantage of additional nutrients not found in most traditional sports drinks. Studies suggest that when consumed after exercise, milk's mix of high-quality protein and carbohydrates can help refuel exhausted muscles. The protein in milk helps build lean muscle and recent research suggests it may reduce exercise-induced muscle damage. Milk also provides fluids for rehydration and minerals like calcium, potassium and magnesium that recreational exercisers and elite athletes alike need to replace after strenuous activity.
Nearly 18 million Americans play soccer, according to American Sports Data, and millions more engage in recreational sports. Many experts agree that the two-hour window after exercise is an important, yet often neglected, part of a fitness routine. After strenuous exercise, this post-workout recovery period is critical for active people at all fitness levels – to help make the most of a workout and stay in top shape for the next exercise bout. Sweating not only results in fluid losses, but also important minerals including calcium, potassium and magnesium. The best recovery routine should replace fluids and nutrients lost in sweat, and help muscles recover.
Increasingly, fitness experts consider chocolate milk an effective (and affordable and enjoyable) option as a post-exercise recovery drink. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommend that Americans drink three glasses of lowfat or fat free milk every day. Drinking lowfat chocolate milk after a workout is a good place to start.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Pitching injuries
Baseball season is underway. With the pros, college and high school teams taking to the baseball diamonds and Little Leaguers soon to follow, orthopedic specialists at Rush University Medical Center are cautioning players to be aware of and take precautions against throwing injuries. An analysis of pitching injuries by researchers at Rush is published in the March/April issue of Sports Health.
“Throwing a baseball is one of the fastest and most violent maneuvers that any joint in the body is subjected to. The violent and rapid motion places numerous structures in the shoulder at risk for injury,” said Dr. Shane Seroyer, lead author of the report and sports medicine fellow at Rush.
Prevention of injury is the key to a long career. Pitchers, especially youth pitchers, should limit the number and types of pitches thrown to minimize the risk of injury.
“For pitchers under 14 years old, we encourage fast ball and change-up pitches and discourage the use of a curveball to prevent injury,” said Dr. Charles Bush-Joseph, sports medicine specialist at Rush and co-author of the report.
Bush-Joseph breaks down the number and type of pitches appropriate for various age groups.
• 9-10 years old: no more than 50 pitches/game and 75 pitches/week
• 11-12 years old: no more than 75 pitches/game and 100 pitches/week
• 13-14 years old: 75 pitches/game and 125 pitches/week
• 14 years old: begin throwing curveball pitch
• 17 years old: begin throwing slider pitch
According to Seroyer, if injury does occur, the early discovery of symptoms, followed by conservative management with rest and rehabilitation can help to decrease the need for surgery in the future.
Shoulder pain may occur during any of the six phases of throwing, which are wind-up, early cocking/stride, late cocking, acceleration, deceleration and follow-through. According to the sports medicine specialists at Rush, diagnosing pain from overhead throwing is one of their more difficult challenges, but shoulder pain most often emanates from one of the following five sources: damaged cartilage, rotator cuff injury, abnormal scapula movement, impingement, and neurovascular disorders.
Injury to cartilage (the labrum), which surrounds the shoulder joint, occurs with trauma to the shoulder joint. Labral tears are among the most common injuries for overhead throwers and generally result from the cocking and acceleration phases of overhead throwing. Cartilage also wears down with age and use.
Damage to the rotator cuff, a term given to the group of muscles and their tendons that act to stabilize the shoulder, can lead to tendonitis and muscle tears. Although one specific movement could cause injury to the rotator cuff, this type of injury is often the result of the “wear and tear” from the overhead throwing motion.
The thrower will often complain of diffuse shoulder pain aggravated by overhead activity and will notice weakness and decreased velocity. Night pain down the arm to the elbow is also common. Conditioning and proper throwing techniques is critical in preventing rotator cuff injury as the results of rotator cuff repair surgery have been disappointing in elite throwers.
Scapular (shoulder blade) pain is the result of abnormal scapular movement, malposition and snapping of bursal tissue around the scapula. The scapula provides a stable base for muscles in the shoulder, thus abnormal positioning and movement can force the arm into strenuous positions and lead to decreased motion and rotation or “dead arm” syndrome. Muscle strengthening and conditioning are necessary to keep the scapula in place for an effective overhead throw. Initial treatment for scapular pain is rest, analgesia (pain relievers), and nonsterodial anti-inflammatory drugs.
Impingement results from pressure on the rotator cuff from part of the shoulder blade as the arm is lifted. Pain during the late cocking and early acceleration phases of throwing is most common. Impingement can cause local swelling and tenderness in the front of the shoulder, and pain and stiffness may be felt when the arm is lifted or lowered from an elevated position.
Conservative treatment for impingement includes oral, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medication, stretching to improve range of motion, injections of local anesthetic and a cortisone preparation to the affected area and rest. Rotator cuff and shoulder blade strengthening and conditioning will help shorten recovery time. Difficult cases may require surgery to remove the impingement in order to create more space for the rotator cuff, allowing for freer movement to lift the arm without pain.
Neurovascular disorders occur when nerves or blood vessels are being compressed, blocked or pinched causing fatigue, loss of velocity, vague shoulder pain, a sense of heaviness, achiness or cramping in the arm. Numbness, tingling, weakness of grip and loss of manual dexterity may also be symptoms experienced after the onset of throwing. Although rare, neurovascular disorders cause significant damage and recovery may be difficult. Successful non-operative treatment methods include rest and thrombolytic and anticoagulation injections used to diffuse blood clots. However, thirty percent of throwers will not respond to conservative measures and will require surgical intervention.
“Throwing a baseball is one of the fastest and most violent maneuvers that any joint in the body is subjected to. The violent and rapid motion places numerous structures in the shoulder at risk for injury,” said Dr. Shane Seroyer, lead author of the report and sports medicine fellow at Rush.
Prevention of injury is the key to a long career. Pitchers, especially youth pitchers, should limit the number and types of pitches thrown to minimize the risk of injury.
“For pitchers under 14 years old, we encourage fast ball and change-up pitches and discourage the use of a curveball to prevent injury,” said Dr. Charles Bush-Joseph, sports medicine specialist at Rush and co-author of the report.
Bush-Joseph breaks down the number and type of pitches appropriate for various age groups.
• 9-10 years old: no more than 50 pitches/game and 75 pitches/week
• 11-12 years old: no more than 75 pitches/game and 100 pitches/week
• 13-14 years old: 75 pitches/game and 125 pitches/week
• 14 years old: begin throwing curveball pitch
• 17 years old: begin throwing slider pitch
According to Seroyer, if injury does occur, the early discovery of symptoms, followed by conservative management with rest and rehabilitation can help to decrease the need for surgery in the future.
Shoulder pain may occur during any of the six phases of throwing, which are wind-up, early cocking/stride, late cocking, acceleration, deceleration and follow-through. According to the sports medicine specialists at Rush, diagnosing pain from overhead throwing is one of their more difficult challenges, but shoulder pain most often emanates from one of the following five sources: damaged cartilage, rotator cuff injury, abnormal scapula movement, impingement, and neurovascular disorders.
Injury to cartilage (the labrum), which surrounds the shoulder joint, occurs with trauma to the shoulder joint. Labral tears are among the most common injuries for overhead throwers and generally result from the cocking and acceleration phases of overhead throwing. Cartilage also wears down with age and use.
Damage to the rotator cuff, a term given to the group of muscles and their tendons that act to stabilize the shoulder, can lead to tendonitis and muscle tears. Although one specific movement could cause injury to the rotator cuff, this type of injury is often the result of the “wear and tear” from the overhead throwing motion.
The thrower will often complain of diffuse shoulder pain aggravated by overhead activity and will notice weakness and decreased velocity. Night pain down the arm to the elbow is also common. Conditioning and proper throwing techniques is critical in preventing rotator cuff injury as the results of rotator cuff repair surgery have been disappointing in elite throwers.
Scapular (shoulder blade) pain is the result of abnormal scapular movement, malposition and snapping of bursal tissue around the scapula. The scapula provides a stable base for muscles in the shoulder, thus abnormal positioning and movement can force the arm into strenuous positions and lead to decreased motion and rotation or “dead arm” syndrome. Muscle strengthening and conditioning are necessary to keep the scapula in place for an effective overhead throw. Initial treatment for scapular pain is rest, analgesia (pain relievers), and nonsterodial anti-inflammatory drugs.
Impingement results from pressure on the rotator cuff from part of the shoulder blade as the arm is lifted. Pain during the late cocking and early acceleration phases of throwing is most common. Impingement can cause local swelling and tenderness in the front of the shoulder, and pain and stiffness may be felt when the arm is lifted or lowered from an elevated position.
Conservative treatment for impingement includes oral, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medication, stretching to improve range of motion, injections of local anesthetic and a cortisone preparation to the affected area and rest. Rotator cuff and shoulder blade strengthening and conditioning will help shorten recovery time. Difficult cases may require surgery to remove the impingement in order to create more space for the rotator cuff, allowing for freer movement to lift the arm without pain.
Neurovascular disorders occur when nerves or blood vessels are being compressed, blocked or pinched causing fatigue, loss of velocity, vague shoulder pain, a sense of heaviness, achiness or cramping in the arm. Numbness, tingling, weakness of grip and loss of manual dexterity may also be symptoms experienced after the onset of throwing. Although rare, neurovascular disorders cause significant damage and recovery may be difficult. Successful non-operative treatment methods include rest and thrombolytic and anticoagulation injections used to diffuse blood clots. However, thirty percent of throwers will not respond to conservative measures and will require surgical intervention.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Mathematician: Yankees Win!
NJIT mathematician foresees tight races in Major League Baseball's Eastern divisions
Larger differentials in Central and West in 2009
The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels should make the playoffs in the American League (AL) in 2009 with most other teams lagging well behind. The National League (NL) should see another very tight race in the Eastern Division as has occurred in recent years.
However, this year it looks like there may be a three-way tie among the defending World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves, and the New York Mets,. Two of these teams should make the playoffs (one as Eastern Division champion and the other as NL wild card team) while the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers should handily win their divisions, said Bruce Bukiet.
Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences and associate dean of the College of Science and Liberal Arts at NJIT, once again provides the number of games each Major League Baseball team should win in 2009 based on the mathematical model he developed in 2000.
The contest for primacy in the AL East should go down to the wire with the Yankees winning 99 games to the Red Sox 97. With the two best records expected in the Major Leagues this season, both teams should make it to the post-season, one as AL East winner and the other as the AL wild card team. The defending AL champion Tampa Bay Rays should take third place with 91 wins. In the AL Central Division, the Indians should win 88 games to the Minnesota Twins 83, while the Angels should win AL West by a whopping 21 games with 92 wins while the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics win 71 each.
In the National League East, Bukiet is concerned that for the third year in a row his favorite team, the Mets, will miss the playoffs on the last day of the season. "The model has been quite accurate with the Mets over past few years with the Mets slightly underperforming and the Phillies slightly over performing. If that repeats itself, it would spell another season of final game heartbreak to Mets fans."
In the NL Central Division, Bukiet's model calls for the Chicago Cubs to win 97 games, 12 more than the second-place St. Louis Cardinals. The Pittsburgh Pirates should win just 60 games, the least in the Major Leagues.
"In the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers should win 91 games, while the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks tie for second place, 8 games back," said Bukiet.
His expected wins for the AL are the following.
AL East: Yankees – 99; Red Sox – 97; Rays – 91; Blue Jays – 83; Orioles – 68.
AL Central: Indians – 88; Twins – 83; White Sox – 79; Tigers – 78; Royals - 71.
AL West: Angels – 92; Rangers – 71; Athletics – 71; Mariners – 65.
For the NL, he projects the following.
NL East: Braves – 88; Phillies – 88; Mets – 88; Marlins – 73; Nationals – 67;
NL Central: Cubs – 97; Cards – 85; Brewers – 82; Astros – 80; Reds – 75; Pirates – 60;
NL West: Dodgers – 91; Diamondbacks – 83; Rockies – 83; Giants – 78; Padres – 76.
"These results are merely a guide as to how teams ought to perform. There are many unknowns, especially trades, injuries and how rookies will perform," said Bukiet. "Over the years, the predictions have been about as good as those of the so-called experts. It demonstrates how useful math can be in understanding so many aspects of the world around us."
Operations Research published Bukiet's mathematical model on which his predictions are based. His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. Bukiet has appeared on CNN Headline News, the Jerusalem Post and Fox Radio's Roger Hedgecock Show, KOGO, San Diego and others. Interview Bukiet in person at 501 Cullimore Hall, by telephone (973-596-8392) or email bukiet@m.njit.edu.
Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, has used this mathematical model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. His picks are posted (for academic purposes only) on his website (www.egrandslam.com). These picks have produced positive results for six of the eight years he has posted them.
Bukiet's main areas of research have involved mathematical modeling of physical phenomena, including detonation waves, healing of wounds, and dynamics of human balance. He has also applied mathematical modeling to sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. He is currently working on National Science Foundation projects to train math and science teachers for high-need schools and to bring computational research projects into Newark High Schools. Bukiet won the 2008 Mathematical Association of American-NJ Section Distinguished Teaching Award and received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award in 2006 for Outstanding Work. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University.
Larger differentials in Central and West in 2009
The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels should make the playoffs in the American League (AL) in 2009 with most other teams lagging well behind. The National League (NL) should see another very tight race in the Eastern Division as has occurred in recent years.
However, this year it looks like there may be a three-way tie among the defending World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves, and the New York Mets,. Two of these teams should make the playoffs (one as Eastern Division champion and the other as NL wild card team) while the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers should handily win their divisions, said Bruce Bukiet.
Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences and associate dean of the College of Science and Liberal Arts at NJIT, once again provides the number of games each Major League Baseball team should win in 2009 based on the mathematical model he developed in 2000.
The contest for primacy in the AL East should go down to the wire with the Yankees winning 99 games to the Red Sox 97. With the two best records expected in the Major Leagues this season, both teams should make it to the post-season, one as AL East winner and the other as the AL wild card team. The defending AL champion Tampa Bay Rays should take third place with 91 wins. In the AL Central Division, the Indians should win 88 games to the Minnesota Twins 83, while the Angels should win AL West by a whopping 21 games with 92 wins while the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics win 71 each.
In the National League East, Bukiet is concerned that for the third year in a row his favorite team, the Mets, will miss the playoffs on the last day of the season. "The model has been quite accurate with the Mets over past few years with the Mets slightly underperforming and the Phillies slightly over performing. If that repeats itself, it would spell another season of final game heartbreak to Mets fans."
In the NL Central Division, Bukiet's model calls for the Chicago Cubs to win 97 games, 12 more than the second-place St. Louis Cardinals. The Pittsburgh Pirates should win just 60 games, the least in the Major Leagues.
"In the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers should win 91 games, while the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks tie for second place, 8 games back," said Bukiet.
His expected wins for the AL are the following.
AL East: Yankees – 99; Red Sox – 97; Rays – 91; Blue Jays – 83; Orioles – 68.
AL Central: Indians – 88; Twins – 83; White Sox – 79; Tigers – 78; Royals - 71.
AL West: Angels – 92; Rangers – 71; Athletics – 71; Mariners – 65.
For the NL, he projects the following.
NL East: Braves – 88; Phillies – 88; Mets – 88; Marlins – 73; Nationals – 67;
NL Central: Cubs – 97; Cards – 85; Brewers – 82; Astros – 80; Reds – 75; Pirates – 60;
NL West: Dodgers – 91; Diamondbacks – 83; Rockies – 83; Giants – 78; Padres – 76.
"These results are merely a guide as to how teams ought to perform. There are many unknowns, especially trades, injuries and how rookies will perform," said Bukiet. "Over the years, the predictions have been about as good as those of the so-called experts. It demonstrates how useful math can be in understanding so many aspects of the world around us."
Operations Research published Bukiet's mathematical model on which his predictions are based. His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. Bukiet has appeared on CNN Headline News, the Jerusalem Post and Fox Radio's Roger Hedgecock Show, KOGO, San Diego and others. Interview Bukiet in person at 501 Cullimore Hall, by telephone (973-596-8392) or email bukiet@m.njit.edu.
Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, has used this mathematical model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. His picks are posted (for academic purposes only) on his website (www.egrandslam.com). These picks have produced positive results for six of the eight years he has posted them.
Bukiet's main areas of research have involved mathematical modeling of physical phenomena, including detonation waves, healing of wounds, and dynamics of human balance. He has also applied mathematical modeling to sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. He is currently working on National Science Foundation projects to train math and science teachers for high-need schools and to bring computational research projects into Newark High Schools. Bukiet won the 2008 Mathematical Association of American-NJ Section Distinguished Teaching Award and received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award in 2006 for Outstanding Work. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Windmill pitching shows risk of injury to biceps
Contrary to common belief, softball pitching subjects the biceps to high forces and torques when the player's arm swings around to release the ball, according to an analysis of muscle firing patterns conducted at Rush University Medical Center.
Published in the current issue of the American Journal of Sports Medicine, the study of the "windmill" pitching motion appears to explain the high incidence of anterior shoulder pain seen in female softball players.
"The conventional belief has been that the underhand throwing motion of softball places little stress on the arm," said Dr. Nikhil Verma, lead author and a specialist in sports medicine at Rush. "But that is not the case."
In the study, seven women – three collegiate and four professional pitchers – underwent motion analysis and surface electromyography to evaluate the muscle firing pattern of their biceps in the course of a windmill pitch. Electromyography detects electrical potential generated by muscle cells when they contract.
The researchers found that even though the upper arm movement in both baseball and fast-pitch softball gives the ball about the same velocity, muscle force during the windmill pitch was much higher.
Moreover, the maximum force, or maximum contraction, occurred not when the arm was cocked, as in baseball's overhand pitching, but when the arm circled around from the 9 o'clock position, almost fully extended back, to the 6 o'clock position, perpendicular with the ground, completing its windmill motion to release the ball. Consequently, the biceps took the majority of the stress, not the elbow.
"The greatest impact is on the biceps, as the muscle first accelerates the arm and then puts on the brakes, after transferring force to the ball," Verma said.
Fast-pitch softball is one of the most popular female athlete team sports in America. In 2008, roughly 2.5 million adolescents competed in the game, and about 1.3 million players were registered with the Amateur Softball Association.
Despite the game's immense popularity at the high school and collegiate levels, Verma said, there is a dearth of sports medicine research on the game's most notable activity: the windmill pitch. Many have assumed that injury is rare with the underhand throw.
Verma launched his study in Rush's human motion laboratory when he found that female softball players from the local professional team were coming into his practice complaining of pain in the front of their shoulders. He was able to localize the pain to the biceps tendon. In one case, a pitcher had ruptured her tendon during play, which implicated the long head of the biceps tendon as the source of stress.
The study findings correlated with these clinical observations.
According to Verma, female softball pitchers are prone to overuse injury not only because of windmill pitching dynamics, but also because they pitch so many games.
"Competitive female pitchers often pitch in every game during a weekend tournament – the equivalent of 1,200 to 1,500 pitches in as little as three days." Verma said. "This is the opposite of the baseball world, where pitchers receive three to four days of rest before returning to the mound."
"Previous studies have shown that shoulder problems cause a significant amount of lost game time among windmill pitchers, with anterior shoulder pain being the common culprit," Verma added. "This study helps explain the etiology of that shoulder pain, and may help doctors devise better treatment and prevention strategies."
Published in the current issue of the American Journal of Sports Medicine, the study of the "windmill" pitching motion appears to explain the high incidence of anterior shoulder pain seen in female softball players.
"The conventional belief has been that the underhand throwing motion of softball places little stress on the arm," said Dr. Nikhil Verma, lead author and a specialist in sports medicine at Rush. "But that is not the case."
In the study, seven women – three collegiate and four professional pitchers – underwent motion analysis and surface electromyography to evaluate the muscle firing pattern of their biceps in the course of a windmill pitch. Electromyography detects electrical potential generated by muscle cells when they contract.
The researchers found that even though the upper arm movement in both baseball and fast-pitch softball gives the ball about the same velocity, muscle force during the windmill pitch was much higher.
Moreover, the maximum force, or maximum contraction, occurred not when the arm was cocked, as in baseball's overhand pitching, but when the arm circled around from the 9 o'clock position, almost fully extended back, to the 6 o'clock position, perpendicular with the ground, completing its windmill motion to release the ball. Consequently, the biceps took the majority of the stress, not the elbow.
"The greatest impact is on the biceps, as the muscle first accelerates the arm and then puts on the brakes, after transferring force to the ball," Verma said.
Fast-pitch softball is one of the most popular female athlete team sports in America. In 2008, roughly 2.5 million adolescents competed in the game, and about 1.3 million players were registered with the Amateur Softball Association.
Despite the game's immense popularity at the high school and collegiate levels, Verma said, there is a dearth of sports medicine research on the game's most notable activity: the windmill pitch. Many have assumed that injury is rare with the underhand throw.
Verma launched his study in Rush's human motion laboratory when he found that female softball players from the local professional team were coming into his practice complaining of pain in the front of their shoulders. He was able to localize the pain to the biceps tendon. In one case, a pitcher had ruptured her tendon during play, which implicated the long head of the biceps tendon as the source of stress.
The study findings correlated with these clinical observations.
According to Verma, female softball pitchers are prone to overuse injury not only because of windmill pitching dynamics, but also because they pitch so many games.
"Competitive female pitchers often pitch in every game during a weekend tournament – the equivalent of 1,200 to 1,500 pitches in as little as three days." Verma said. "This is the opposite of the baseball world, where pitchers receive three to four days of rest before returning to the mound."
"Previous studies have shown that shoulder problems cause a significant amount of lost game time among windmill pitchers, with anterior shoulder pain being the common culprit," Verma added. "This study helps explain the etiology of that shoulder pain, and may help doctors devise better treatment and prevention strategies."
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