Mathematician foresees romps for Major League Baseball's American League in 2008
NJIT’s indefatigable math professor Bruce Bukiet is once again opining on outcomes for this season’s Major League Baseball teams. His picks are based on a mathematical model he developed in 2000.
Operations Research published Bukiet’s original mathematical model on which his predictions are based. The model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage.
His predictions follow, including expected number of wins for each team.
“The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels should make the playoffs in the American League (AL) in 2008 with the other teams lagging well behind,” he said.
“The National League (NL) should see much tighter races, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves winning the East and the wild card, respectively, while in the Central and West Divisions only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants have no real shot of making it to the post-season.” The Yankees and Red Sox should tie for baseball’s best record with 98 wins, with both teams making the post-season, one as AL East winner and the other as the AL wild card team. The next closest team in their division, the Toronto Blue Jays, should wind up 12 games back. In the AL Central Division, the Tigers should win, besting the Cleveland Indians by 9 games, while the Angels should win AL West by 14 games over the Seattle Mariners.
In the National League Central Division, Bukiet’s model calls for the top five teams to be within five wins of each other. With the model’s typical error, any team but the Pittsburgh Pirates (with 71 wins) could eke out the division championship. Bukiet calls for the Milwaukee Brewers to win 84, the Chicago Cubs to win 83, the Cincinnati Reds to win 81, the St. Louis Cardinals to win 80 and the Houston Astros to win 79 games.
In the NL West, the contest should be closer, said Bukiet, whose model has the top four teams within three wins of each other. The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres, who had to play a tie-breaker to decide the wild card team in 2007 look like they might have to do it again, playing for the NL West title, both winning 85 games in 2008. The Arizona Diamondbacks should be close behind with 83 wins and the Los Angeles Dodgers can expect 82. Only the San Francisco Giants should lag with 75.
The expected number of wins for each team is:
AL East: Yankees – 98; Red Sox – 98; Blue Jays – 86; Rays – 75; Orioles – 63;
AL Central: Tigers – 96; Indians – 87; White Sox – 79; Twins – 74; Royals 63;
AL West: Angels – 92; Mariners – 78; A’s – 75; Rangers – 70;
NL East: Mets – 92; Braves – 89; Phillies – 84; Nationals – 73; Marlins – 70;
NL Central: Brewers – 84; Cubs – 83; Reds – 81; Cards – 80; Astros – 79; Pirates – 71;
NL West: Rockies – 85; Padres – 85; Diamondbacks – 83; Dodgers – 82; Giants – 75;
"These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season but there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will perform that cannot be taken into account,” added Bukiet.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
How Dangerous is Boxing for the Brain?
The “Heidelberg Boxing Study” does not find any clear risks from amateur boxing / Publication in “American Journal of Neuroradiology”
Boxing is possibly less dangerous for the brain than previously feared – at least for amateurs. However, conclusive statements on the level of danger are not yet possible. Whether professional boxers such as Muhammad Ali contracted their later brain conditions – in his case Parkinson’s disease at the age of 40 – presumably from boxing, remains unclear. The all-clear cannot be given until more extensive studies of both amateur and professional boxers tell us more about the risks for the brain from boxing.
This was the conclusion reached in the “Heidelberg Boxing Study”, in which high-resolution MRI data were used to search for tiny changes in the brains of amateur boxers and a comparison group of non-boxers. These changes are most likely precursors for later severe brain damage such as Parkinson’s disease or dementia.
The study by the Department of Neurology, University of Heidelberg Medical Center has now been published in the American Journal of Neuroradiology. In three of the 42 boxers, microhemorrhages were found, while in the comparison group of 37 non-boxers there were no such changes; however the difference was not statistically significant. The study was carried out jointly with National Training Center for Boxing in Heidelberg and the Department of Sport Medicine at the University of Heidelberg Medical Center (Medical Director: Professor Dr. Peter Bärtsch).
Microhemorrhages could be precursors to Parkinson’s disease and dementia
In boxing, the head is hit at a high speed and with great force. This can lead to shear movement between different brain tissues, resulting in microhemorrhages. “Injuries of this kind can be detected with the help of a modern MR imaging device with a field strength of 3 Tesla such as is available in Heidelberg,” explained Professor Dr. Stefan Hähnel, chief consultant at the Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Neurology, University of Heidelberg Medical Center, who conducted the study with Professor Dr. Uta Meyding-Lamadé, then chief consultant at the Department of Neurology, University of Heidelberg Medical Center, now Medical Director at Krankenhaus Nordwest in Frankfurt.
It is not known how often the microhemorrhages occur in boxers. They may eventually lead to the destruction of brain cells and deficits such as dementia and Parkinson’s disease. This hypothesis is shared by some working groups. The three boxers in whom changes were found typically had the changes in the frontal or temporal lobes, where the shear forces of blows are strongest.
A follow-up study will compare amateur boxers with professionals
One disadvantage of the “Heidelberg Boxing Study” was the great range in duration and intensity of amateur boxing. Duration ranged from one to 25 years and intensity from one to 375 bouts with 0 to 12 knockouts. A follow-up study is planned to include professional boxers, in order to assess intensive exposure to blows. The Heidelberg researchers are currently looking for funding for this study.
Boxing is possibly less dangerous for the brain than previously feared – at least for amateurs. However, conclusive statements on the level of danger are not yet possible. Whether professional boxers such as Muhammad Ali contracted their later brain conditions – in his case Parkinson’s disease at the age of 40 – presumably from boxing, remains unclear. The all-clear cannot be given until more extensive studies of both amateur and professional boxers tell us more about the risks for the brain from boxing.
This was the conclusion reached in the “Heidelberg Boxing Study”, in which high-resolution MRI data were used to search for tiny changes in the brains of amateur boxers and a comparison group of non-boxers. These changes are most likely precursors for later severe brain damage such as Parkinson’s disease or dementia.
The study by the Department of Neurology, University of Heidelberg Medical Center has now been published in the American Journal of Neuroradiology. In three of the 42 boxers, microhemorrhages were found, while in the comparison group of 37 non-boxers there were no such changes; however the difference was not statistically significant. The study was carried out jointly with National Training Center for Boxing in Heidelberg and the Department of Sport Medicine at the University of Heidelberg Medical Center (Medical Director: Professor Dr. Peter Bärtsch).
Microhemorrhages could be precursors to Parkinson’s disease and dementia
In boxing, the head is hit at a high speed and with great force. This can lead to shear movement between different brain tissues, resulting in microhemorrhages. “Injuries of this kind can be detected with the help of a modern MR imaging device with a field strength of 3 Tesla such as is available in Heidelberg,” explained Professor Dr. Stefan Hähnel, chief consultant at the Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Neurology, University of Heidelberg Medical Center, who conducted the study with Professor Dr. Uta Meyding-Lamadé, then chief consultant at the Department of Neurology, University of Heidelberg Medical Center, now Medical Director at Krankenhaus Nordwest in Frankfurt.
It is not known how often the microhemorrhages occur in boxers. They may eventually lead to the destruction of brain cells and deficits such as dementia and Parkinson’s disease. This hypothesis is shared by some working groups. The three boxers in whom changes were found typically had the changes in the frontal or temporal lobes, where the shear forces of blows are strongest.
A follow-up study will compare amateur boxers with professionals
One disadvantage of the “Heidelberg Boxing Study” was the great range in duration and intensity of amateur boxing. Duration ranged from one to 25 years and intensity from one to 375 bouts with 0 to 12 knockouts. A follow-up study is planned to include professional boxers, in order to assess intensive exposure to blows. The Heidelberg researchers are currently looking for funding for this study.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
NFL players at increased risk for heart problems
Screening for cardiovascular problems in elite-level football players should begin in high school and continue throughout the lives of college and professional players. Mayo Clinic physicians based that conclusion on the results of their new study of the cardiovascular health of 233 retired National Football League (NFL) players.
The Mayo data showed that 82 percent of NFL players under age 50 had abnormal narrowing and blockages in arteries, compared to the general population of the same age. This finding suggests that the former athletes face increased risk of experiencing high blood pressure, heart attack or stroke. The report on research conducted by the Mayo Clinic Arizona group will be presented next week at the American College of Cardiology Annual Scientific Session in Chicago.
Significance of the Mayo Clinic Study
This is the first and largest study to measure comprehensive cardiovascular performance measures on retired NFL athletes, ages 35 to 65. Its findings add to the emerging portrait of poor heart health among this group of retired athletes. The findings also suggest that players as young as high school age who are engaged in serious competitive-conference level of training and play may benefit from regular cardiovascular screening. “What we hope to emphasize with our findings is that all NFL players -- retired or not -- need to undergo cardiovascular health evaluation because they may have changes in heart and vessel conditions that we can treat so they don’t experience problems later in life,” says Robert Hurst, M.D., Mayo Clinic cardiologist and lead researcher.
Adds chair of cardiovascular diseases at Mayo Clinic in Arizona and researcher Bijoy Khandheria, M.D.: “Cardiovascular screening is readily available and needs to become a routine part of serious football players’ health care, beginning at the high school level for those who are engaged in a highly competitive and rigorous level of training and play.”
Football and Heart Problems
Previous research by various institutions and investigators in recent years showed concerning health trends:
Retired NFL players are more prone to obesity and obstructive sleep apnea than the general population.
Retired NFL players have an increased rate of metabolic syndrome, a condition increasingly linked to excess weight and lack of activity, which can lead to type 2 diabetes.
Higher mortality is reported in linemen, as compared to people in the general population of the same age who are not professional football players. Research is needed to determine the causes.
Observing these serious trends, the Mayo Clinic researchers undertook the study to define vascular health and, by association, cardiovascular risk in retired NFL players. To determine vascular health, the Mayo team conducted multisite screening events with the help of players’ associations. Investigators measured the internal diameter of the carotid artery. They also assessed plaque deposits which can block blood flow.
The most striking results showed that:
In players less than 50 years old, 82 percent had either plaque or carotid narrowing greater than the 75th percentile of the population, adjusted for age, sex and race. This represents a dangerous level of narrowing that could lead to a catastrophic reduction of blood flow resulting in heart attack or stroke.
Heart disease had not been previously diagnosed in these players. Nor had they experienced symptoms of heart disease, such as chest pain upon exertion.
As a result, the players did not know that they were at serious risk of heart attack or stroke, or that they needed to make lifestyle changes or start medical therapy to improve the capacity of their cardiovascular systems to maintain blood flow.
The Mayo research team concluded that because test results showed evidence of asymptomatic narrowing of the arteries -- called atherosclerosis -- the retired NFL players are at abnormally high risk for an adverse cardiovascular event, as compared with people of the same age in the general population. In addition, the high incidence of plaque found in players’ vessels suggests that the increased narrowing is not solely due to increased body mass index. Further research is needed to explain this. In the meantime, football players will benefit from regular cardiovascular screening. “Effective therapies are available to help players avoid serious cardiovascular problems later in life, but players need to take that first step of seeking out screening programs to identify those at risk,” Dr. Khandheria says.
The Mayo data showed that 82 percent of NFL players under age 50 had abnormal narrowing and blockages in arteries, compared to the general population of the same age. This finding suggests that the former athletes face increased risk of experiencing high blood pressure, heart attack or stroke. The report on research conducted by the Mayo Clinic Arizona group will be presented next week at the American College of Cardiology Annual Scientific Session in Chicago.
Significance of the Mayo Clinic Study
This is the first and largest study to measure comprehensive cardiovascular performance measures on retired NFL athletes, ages 35 to 65. Its findings add to the emerging portrait of poor heart health among this group of retired athletes. The findings also suggest that players as young as high school age who are engaged in serious competitive-conference level of training and play may benefit from regular cardiovascular screening. “What we hope to emphasize with our findings is that all NFL players -- retired or not -- need to undergo cardiovascular health evaluation because they may have changes in heart and vessel conditions that we can treat so they don’t experience problems later in life,” says Robert Hurst, M.D., Mayo Clinic cardiologist and lead researcher.
Adds chair of cardiovascular diseases at Mayo Clinic in Arizona and researcher Bijoy Khandheria, M.D.: “Cardiovascular screening is readily available and needs to become a routine part of serious football players’ health care, beginning at the high school level for those who are engaged in a highly competitive and rigorous level of training and play.”
Football and Heart Problems
Previous research by various institutions and investigators in recent years showed concerning health trends:
Retired NFL players are more prone to obesity and obstructive sleep apnea than the general population.
Retired NFL players have an increased rate of metabolic syndrome, a condition increasingly linked to excess weight and lack of activity, which can lead to type 2 diabetes.
Higher mortality is reported in linemen, as compared to people in the general population of the same age who are not professional football players. Research is needed to determine the causes.
Observing these serious trends, the Mayo Clinic researchers undertook the study to define vascular health and, by association, cardiovascular risk in retired NFL players. To determine vascular health, the Mayo team conducted multisite screening events with the help of players’ associations. Investigators measured the internal diameter of the carotid artery. They also assessed plaque deposits which can block blood flow.
The most striking results showed that:
In players less than 50 years old, 82 percent had either plaque or carotid narrowing greater than the 75th percentile of the population, adjusted for age, sex and race. This represents a dangerous level of narrowing that could lead to a catastrophic reduction of blood flow resulting in heart attack or stroke.
Heart disease had not been previously diagnosed in these players. Nor had they experienced symptoms of heart disease, such as chest pain upon exertion.
As a result, the players did not know that they were at serious risk of heart attack or stroke, or that they needed to make lifestyle changes or start medical therapy to improve the capacity of their cardiovascular systems to maintain blood flow.
The Mayo research team concluded that because test results showed evidence of asymptomatic narrowing of the arteries -- called atherosclerosis -- the retired NFL players are at abnormally high risk for an adverse cardiovascular event, as compared with people of the same age in the general population. In addition, the high incidence of plaque found in players’ vessels suggests that the increased narrowing is not solely due to increased body mass index. Further research is needed to explain this. In the meantime, football players will benefit from regular cardiovascular screening. “Effective therapies are available to help players avoid serious cardiovascular problems later in life, but players need to take that first step of seeking out screening programs to identify those at risk,” Dr. Khandheria says.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Pitching mound height and injury risk
Study finds pitching mound height affects throwing motion, injury risk
Medical College study on pitching mound height provides insight into baseball injuries
A study involving several Major League Baseball pitchers indicates that the height of the pitcher’s mound can affect the athlete’s throwing arm motion, which may lead to potential injuries because of stress on the shoulder and elbow.
The study was led by William Raasch, M.D., associate professor of orthopaedic surgery at the Medical College of Wisconsin in Milwaukee, who also is the head team physician for the Milwaukee Brewers. Major League Baseball funded the study in an effort to help prevent injuries among professional baseball players.
The results of the study were presented at the 2007 MLB Winter Meetings at the joint session of the Major League Baseball Team Physicians Association and Professional Baseball Athletic Trainers Society.
The researchers recruited 20 top-level, elite pitchers from Major League Baseball organizations and Milwaukee-area NCAA Division I-A college pitchers for the study, which was conducted both during 2007 spring training in Arizona and at the Froedtert & Medical College Sports Medicine Center in Milwaukee.
“Our researchers employed a motion analysis system using eight digital cameras that recorded the three-dimensional positions of 43 reflective markers placed on the athletes’ bodies. Then we analyzed the pitching motion at mound heights of the regulation 10-inches, along with eight-inch and six-inch mounds, as well as having the athletes throw from flat ground,” Dr. Raasch explains.
The study focused on determining if there is increased stress on the shoulder or the elbow based on the height from which the pitcher has thrown. A kinematic analysis provided information regarding pitching motion (position and velocity), while the kinetic analysis determined the forces and torques generated at the shoulder and elbow.
“We found that compared to flat ground, pitchers using a 10-inch mound experience an increase in superior shear and adduction torque in the shoulder – meaning there’s a greater amount of stress on the joint surface and surrounding structures. That greater stress may result in injury to the shoulder including tearing of the rotator cuff or labrum which may result in surgery and long-term rehabilitation. It also can make it difficult for the athlete to replicate the same throw and develop a consistent strike,” Dr. Raasch says.
“The most notable kinematic difference was the increase in shoulder external rotation at foot contact. This probably represents a change in the timing of the foot contact relative to arm position, because the foot lands earlier in the pitch delivery during flat ground throwing than with a slope,” he says.
While the study did not result in enough data to recommend reducing the 10-inch mound height, which became standard in 1968 and also used in college and high school baseball, Dr. Raasch says the findings give trainers information that can help them determine if pitchers would be better off practicing on flat ground especially after an injury.
“Nolan Ryan, who played major league baseball for 27 years, often threw pitches more than 100 mph, even past the age of 40, and he liked to throw on flat ground in his waning years. I think others might follow his lead,” Dr. Raasch says. He adds that he hopes subsequent research during spring training in 2008 will provide even more valuable findings for baseball players and trainers.
Medical College study on pitching mound height provides insight into baseball injuries
A study involving several Major League Baseball pitchers indicates that the height of the pitcher’s mound can affect the athlete’s throwing arm motion, which may lead to potential injuries because of stress on the shoulder and elbow.
The study was led by William Raasch, M.D., associate professor of orthopaedic surgery at the Medical College of Wisconsin in Milwaukee, who also is the head team physician for the Milwaukee Brewers. Major League Baseball funded the study in an effort to help prevent injuries among professional baseball players.
The results of the study were presented at the 2007 MLB Winter Meetings at the joint session of the Major League Baseball Team Physicians Association and Professional Baseball Athletic Trainers Society.
The researchers recruited 20 top-level, elite pitchers from Major League Baseball organizations and Milwaukee-area NCAA Division I-A college pitchers for the study, which was conducted both during 2007 spring training in Arizona and at the Froedtert & Medical College Sports Medicine Center in Milwaukee.
“Our researchers employed a motion analysis system using eight digital cameras that recorded the three-dimensional positions of 43 reflective markers placed on the athletes’ bodies. Then we analyzed the pitching motion at mound heights of the regulation 10-inches, along with eight-inch and six-inch mounds, as well as having the athletes throw from flat ground,” Dr. Raasch explains.
The study focused on determining if there is increased stress on the shoulder or the elbow based on the height from which the pitcher has thrown. A kinematic analysis provided information regarding pitching motion (position and velocity), while the kinetic analysis determined the forces and torques generated at the shoulder and elbow.
“We found that compared to flat ground, pitchers using a 10-inch mound experience an increase in superior shear and adduction torque in the shoulder – meaning there’s a greater amount of stress on the joint surface and surrounding structures. That greater stress may result in injury to the shoulder including tearing of the rotator cuff or labrum which may result in surgery and long-term rehabilitation. It also can make it difficult for the athlete to replicate the same throw and develop a consistent strike,” Dr. Raasch says.
“The most notable kinematic difference was the increase in shoulder external rotation at foot contact. This probably represents a change in the timing of the foot contact relative to arm position, because the foot lands earlier in the pitch delivery during flat ground throwing than with a slope,” he says.
While the study did not result in enough data to recommend reducing the 10-inch mound height, which became standard in 1968 and also used in college and high school baseball, Dr. Raasch says the findings give trainers information that can help them determine if pitchers would be better off practicing on flat ground especially after an injury.
“Nolan Ryan, who played major league baseball for 27 years, often threw pitches more than 100 mph, even past the age of 40, and he liked to throw on flat ground in his waning years. I think others might follow his lead,” Dr. Raasch says. He adds that he hopes subsequent research during spring training in 2008 will provide even more valuable findings for baseball players and trainers.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Comeback to a pre-injury level disappointing
Comeback to a pre-injury level disappointing for professional baseball players
SAN FRANCISCO — Only 45 percent of baseball players were able to return to the game at the same or higher level after shoulder or elbow surgery, according to new research released today during the 2008 American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine Specialty Day at The Moscone Center.
“In an ideal world, of course, we would get 100 percent of the players back to their pre-injury level or higher,” says Steven B. Cohen, MD, assistant team physician for the Philadelphia Phillies and director of Sports Medicine Research at the Rothman Institute in Philadelphia. “But the fact of the matter is at this elite level of the sport, the physical demands of throwing have much higher requirements than the regular person on the street. The average person who has shoulder or elbow surgery can return to their regular activities. Throwing a baseball at the professional level puts a significant amount of stress on the shoulder and the elbow.”
Over a four-season period, Cohen and colleagues studied 44 players from one professional baseball club (major league, AAA, AA and A) who underwent 50 shoulder and elbow operations by a variety of surgeons. There were 27 shoulder surgeries performed on 26 players and 23 elbow surgeries performed on 21 players. A key finding of the study was that players returning after elbow surgery were more likely to comeback to the same or higher playing level than those who had shoulder surgery. Thirty-five of the players were pitchers with 43 percent returning to the same or higher playing level.
The researchers found that overall, only 20 of the 44 players (45 percent) returned to the same or higher level of professional baseball. For ballplayers at the major league, AAA, or AA level, the study found only 4 of 22 (18 percent) were able to return to the same or higher level.
“As a surgeon, obviously these statistics were disappointing and somewhat lower than what we would like them to be,” said Cohen. “This may give us cause, however, to look at how we evaluate and treat these injuries to the throwing arm. Our goal is to get these elite athletes back to their premier pre-injury health. This is important both to the player who is making a living off his athletic ability and the organization that wants its players in top shape. We may need to examine if there is a way to ‘fine-tune’ these procedures to customize them for the demands of a professional baseball player.”
SAN FRANCISCO — Only 45 percent of baseball players were able to return to the game at the same or higher level after shoulder or elbow surgery, according to new research released today during the 2008 American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine Specialty Day at The Moscone Center.
“In an ideal world, of course, we would get 100 percent of the players back to their pre-injury level or higher,” says Steven B. Cohen, MD, assistant team physician for the Philadelphia Phillies and director of Sports Medicine Research at the Rothman Institute in Philadelphia. “But the fact of the matter is at this elite level of the sport, the physical demands of throwing have much higher requirements than the regular person on the street. The average person who has shoulder or elbow surgery can return to their regular activities. Throwing a baseball at the professional level puts a significant amount of stress on the shoulder and the elbow.”
Over a four-season period, Cohen and colleagues studied 44 players from one professional baseball club (major league, AAA, AA and A) who underwent 50 shoulder and elbow operations by a variety of surgeons. There were 27 shoulder surgeries performed on 26 players and 23 elbow surgeries performed on 21 players. A key finding of the study was that players returning after elbow surgery were more likely to comeback to the same or higher playing level than those who had shoulder surgery. Thirty-five of the players were pitchers with 43 percent returning to the same or higher playing level.
The researchers found that overall, only 20 of the 44 players (45 percent) returned to the same or higher level of professional baseball. For ballplayers at the major league, AAA, or AA level, the study found only 4 of 22 (18 percent) were able to return to the same or higher level.
“As a surgeon, obviously these statistics were disappointing and somewhat lower than what we would like them to be,” said Cohen. “This may give us cause, however, to look at how we evaluate and treat these injuries to the throwing arm. Our goal is to get these elite athletes back to their premier pre-injury health. This is important both to the player who is making a living off his athletic ability and the organization that wants its players in top shape. We may need to examine if there is a way to ‘fine-tune’ these procedures to customize them for the demands of a professional baseball player.”
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